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Despite impactful flooding last week across the central Gulf Coast from the remnants of short-lived Tropical Storm Arthur — rainfall totals topping two feet in some places, bringing rainfall totals since May to nearly 50 inches across parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi — it’s been largely crickets across the Atlantic since the start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
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As June transitions to July next week, we’ll be keeping an eye off the shores of the southeast U.S. for an elongated area of low pressure tied to a stalled frontal zone that could spawn an area to watch by the middle to latter part of next week.
It’s the time of year giant plumes of dust heaved off the African continent from the Sahara Desert travel thousands of miles across the Atlantic, sprinkling down on the shoreline sands of Florida and the U.S. Gulf Coast.
The 2025 hurricane season was a coming-of-age story for AI weather models, which have been around in some capacity since around 2022.
June is historically the least active month of the hurricane season, but that doesn’t mean the first month of the season can’t bring its fair share of issues.
Tropical Storm Arthur lasted only 12 hours as a named storm on Wednesday – one of the shortest-lived named storms in Atlantic basin records – but its stormy, water-logged remnants dragged a slug of torrential rains and severe weather through parts of the Deep South on Thursday, leading to widespread, devastating flooding from south and central Louisiana to southeastern Mississippi and lower Alabama.
Short-lived Tropical Storm Arthur – which formed late Wednesday morning along the middle Texas coast – moved inland near Galveston by Wednesday afternoon and lost its tropical designation by Wednesday evening as its circulation quickly unraveled.
The National Hurricane Center late Wednesday morning upgraded Potential Tropical Cyclone One to Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
A large tropical disturbance spinning inland over the mountains of northern Mexico – in part the remnants of once-Tropical Storm Cristina that crossed Central America late last week and now dubbed Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center, the first Invest of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season – is expected to briefly re-emerge over the coastal waters off Texas late Tuesday and Wednesday where odds are increasing it could make a brief run as the season’s first tropical storm.
A tropical disturbance that moved into northern Mexico over the weekend – partly the leftover spin of once-Tropical-Storm Cristina that crossed Central America from the eastern Pacific – will hitch a ride along an unusually strong and slow-moving cold front this week through the Deep South.
The disturbance that we began previewing in this newsletter over a week ago and that was first mentioned by NHC on Wednesday is now centered over the Bay of Campeche in the extreme southern Gulf.
On Wednesday, the team of hurricane experts at Colorado State University (CSU) issued their June forecast update for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, reducing their predictions from their earlier April outlook, and now calls for the lowest tropical activity seen across the basin since 2015.
A disturbance we first detailed in this newsletter a week ago is now being tagged by the National Hurricane for low development odds later this week in the southern reaches of the Gulf before moving inland over eastern Mexico late Saturday into Sunday.
Though El Niño is responsible for intensifying many extreme weather patterns associated with climate change – worsening extreme drought, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves globally – its impact on the Atlantic hurricane season is generally welcome news to those of us living along hurricane alley.
In newsletters last week, we previewed the possibility of an active eastern Pacific seeding an uptick in storminess across the western Caribbean or southern Gulf later this week.
The first full week of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will close without any named storms.
The opening volleys of the 2026 hurricane season have unsurprisingly come from the eastern Pacific so far, where Amanda – the basin’s first named storm – formed late yesterday morning, and two more systems are poised to develop into next week off the Pacific coast.
The Atlantic hurricane season usually doesn’t come roaring out of the gate, and, as we discussed in yesterday’s newsletter, June is historically the least active month of the season for the basin.
June is historically the least active month of the 6-month hurricane season.
Today marks day one of the 183-day Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30. Forecasters expect overall hurricane activity across the Atlantic basin to be softened this season by a potentially historic El Niño building in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which acts to deter would-be storms on the Atlantic side by ramping up hostile wind shear.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season appears to be winding down.
Hurricane Melissa, which devastated western Jamaica as one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, briefly restrengthened between Jamaica and Cuba late Tuesday before making a second landfall shortly after 3 a.m. ET Wednesday as a Category 3 hurricane about 40 miles west of Santiago de Cuba – the country’s second most populous city – in eastern Cuba.
Hurricane Melissa put on a rare show overnight, tipping the scales as a Category 5 hurricane by the predawn hours Monday while drifting only about 100 miles south of Jamaica over the deep, warm waters of the central Caribbean.
Tropical Storm Melissa grounded to a halt over the central Caribbean about 150 miles south of Jamaica and Haiti early Friday.
Tropical Storm Melissa continued to struggle early Thursday as it crawled several hundred miles south of Jamaica and Haiti over the central Caribbean.
Tropical Storm Melissa formed late Tuesday morning about 300 miles south of Haiti over the central Caribbean but remains disorganized as it contends with persistent wind shear.
A tropical wave that moved into the eastern Caribbean on Sunday – designated Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center on Saturday – is becoming increasingly organized and will likely become a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next day or two as it slows over the central Caribbean.
A strong late-season tropical wave now moving through the central Atlantic could develop once it enters the Caribbean as upper-level winds turn increasingly conducive next week.
Since the basin reopened for business about a month ago following a bizarre 20-day drought with no active tropical systems through the traditional peak of the hurricane season, it’s managed to notch 6 of its 12 named storms and a full 60% of the season’s overall tropical activity as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE.
Despite earlier forecasts showing Tropical Storm Lorenzo hanging around into the weekend, the unfriendly central Atlantic of mid October has done a number on it, and it’s no longer expected to survive the work week.
Despite a lopsided and disheveled appearance, Tropical Storm Jerry’s winds have gradually ticked up and it’s expected to be just shy of hurricane strength as its center curves north of the northern Leeward Islands along the northeastern edge of the Caribbean later today.
A strong tropical disturbance churning through the central Atlantic – designated Invest 95L – continues to organize and is on the cusp of becoming a tropical depression or named storm. The next name on the list is Jerry.
The 2025 hurricane season that hit the pause button for nearly 3 weeks around its traditional peak in September is showing no signs of slowing as we enter its final stretch.
Hurricane Imelda struck Bermuda head on during the midnight hours late Wednesday and early Thursday, plunging about half the archipelago into darkness as daylight broke Thursday.
Hurricane Imelda is accelerating away from the U.S. but strengthening on a beeline to Bermuda for later today, where it’s forecast to bring strong winds to 100-plus mph, flooding rains, and powerful and destructive waves.
Imelda became the 4th hurricane of the 2025 hurricane season early Monday as it began its anticipated turn eastward only about 250 miles off Florida’s east-central coast.
Tropical Storm Imelda formed Sunday afternoon just east of the southern tip of Andros Island in the northwestern Bahamas and continues to strengthen near Great Abaco Island in the northern Bahamas – about 200 miles east of southeast Florida – on Monday.
Humberto rapidly strengthened to a hurricane early Friday and is forecast to ramp up into a formidable major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane this weekend, but it’s the disturbance to Humberto’s west that’s expected to develop and threaten the southeast U.S. – likely as Imelda – by late weekend and early next week.
Humberto – the 8th named storm of the hurricane season – formed Monday afternoon over the central Atlantic and is forecast to become a major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane by Monday as it turns east of the U.S.
Two vigorous tropical disturbances – designated Invest 93L (easternmost disturbance) and Invest 94L (westernmost disturbance) – are likely to develop in the coming days and could bring impacts to land, with the westernmost system tracking through the Bahamas and near Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas for early next week.
As we previewed in this newsletter two weeks ago, the Atlantic is finally heating up as we round out September.
After days of struggles through the hostile deep Atlantic – barely holding on most of Thursday as a naked low-level cloud swirl – Gabrielle is staging a comeback today that should take it to hurricane strength before the weekend is out.
Gabrielle, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, formed late Wednesday morning, the first named storm in the Atlantic since August 28th, breaking a remarkable 20-day stormless Atlantic streak and making it the latest first-forming September storm in over 30 years.
Invest 92L, the disturbance we’ve been following since early last week, was upgraded to the 7th tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season early Wednesday, breaking an unprecedented 20-day dry spell through what’s traditionally the busiest part of the season.
As we’ve been advertising since early last week, the Atlantic is poised to pick up the pace as we round out September.
It’s been 18 days since the Atlantic basin has seen any active system (tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane), an unprecedented dry spell through what is traditionally the most active stretch of the hurricane season.
The tropical wave we’ve been previewing all week has finally emerged off the coast of Africa and is expected to gradually develop deeper into next week as it passes harmlessly over the open Atlantic.
Atlantic hurricane season activity traditionally peaks on or around September 10th, the date around which you’re most likely to find an active named storm.
With virtually no model support for development by Saturday, the National Hurricane Center dropped development odds at a rapid clip, and before the day was out, Invest 91L was off their map.
The tropical wave we’ve been following since last Thursday in this newsletter – designated Invest 91L by the National Hurricane Center early Thursday – is expected to become a tropical depression or named storm this weekend and could affect the easternmost islands of the Caribbean by the middle to latter part of next week.
The tropical wave that rolled off Africa Sunday – a system we’ve been following since last Thursday and discussed in detail in yesterday’s newsletter – continues to move harmlessly through the deep tropical Atlantic with only scattered, disorganized storminess.
A disturbance over the eastern tropical Atlantic could gradually develop into a tropical depression or named storm by late this week or weekend as it moves generally west to west-northwestward.
After a rollicking August, the Atlantic basin looks poised to go its longest stretch without a named storm since the last days of July.
With one named storm taking its final bow today, the Atlantic should close out August on a quiet note.
Google DeepMind, a London-based AI research lab, has been in the business of machine learning-based weather forecasting for several years, but back in June announced a new experimental AI model specific to tropical storms and hurricanes that would be evaluated in real-time this season by forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.
Fernand, the 6th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, formed on Saturday over the open Atlantic southeast of Bermuda, but hooked quickly east of Bermuda on Sunday on a path out to sea.
Hurricane Erin’s reach through the western Atlantic continues to grow and intensify, with pressures quickly falling into the low 940s while churning about 475 miles east-southeast of northeast Florida.
Hurricane Erin, already twice as large as it was just a few days ago, is expected to grow even larger this week as its expanding wind field brushes up against the U.S. Eastern Seaboard, delivering days of dangerous waves, high surf, and life-threatening rip currents for most of the coastal Atlantic states.
Hurricane Erin dazzled forecasters over the weekend, putting on a spectacular show of strength rarely observed, becoming only the 43rd Atlantic-basin Category 5 hurricane on record and tying Camille in 1969 for the 4th earliest-forming Category 5 ever recorded.
Despite steady strengthening on Thursday to near hurricane strength, Erin struggled overnight, with hurricane hunters finding a degraded core during pre-dawn missions Friday.
Erin, the fifth named storm of the hurricane season, formed on Monday over the eastern Atlantic and is poised to strengthen into the first hurricane of the season by Thursday as it tracks westward.
The tropical wave that moved off Africa Friday has been designated Invest 97L, and it is on the cusp of becoming a tropical depression or named storm. The next name on the list is Erin.
As we’ve anticipated since early last month, the Atlantic is off to a busy start this August but thankfully so far we’ve avoided any threats to land.
The Atlantic’s making up for a slow start, with Dexter alone doubling the paltry activity of the past two months, and more storms on the horizon.
As any regular reader of this newsletter knows, there’s always a point in the hurricane season – most often in August – when the Atlantic springs awake.
We’re not even through the first full week of August and the hurricane season is quickly hitting its stride.
We’ve been previewing a busy start to August in this newsletter for almost a month, describing the behind-the-scenes developments signaling an uptick in Atlantic activity, and, two weeks ago, advertising an August 3rd wake-up call for the basin.
It’s August, a big month for the hurricane season when activity ramps up in a hurry and powerful hurricanes can threaten from every direction.
July, despite a few very significant tropically-driven floods, will end on a mostly quiet note.
Saharan dust plumes heaved through the Atlantic from the deserts of North Africa each summer – providing rich nutrients for soils of the Amazon while helping to curb early season hurricane activity – has been largely a no-show so far.
As we discussed in Friday’s newsletter, the Atlantic is beginning its pivot into the traditionally busiest 6-week stretch of the hurricane season.
There’s often a point in the hurricane season – typically in August – when forecast models wake up, suddenly realizing the Atlantic’s in shape to start churning out hurricanes.
A disorganized area of low pressure that moved across north Florida from the Atlantic yesterday is migrating westward through the northern Gulf today.
The tropics should stay mostly quiet into the waning days of July.
The Atlantic basin has been undergoing a metamorphosis of sorts over the past few weeks, shedding its hostile early season shell for an increasingly conducive look with the hurricane season’s traditional busiest stretch only weeks away.
Late Friday, the National Hurricane Center tagged its first area of interest over the traditional Main Development Region or MDR of the Atlantic – the band of deep tropical waters east of the easternmost Caribbean islands – so far this hurricane season.
The disturbance dubbed Invest 93L washed ashore over Louisiana on Thursday, bringing widespread rainfall of 2 to 5 inches across much of southern Louisiana, with localized totals reaching double digits in the bayous of the Atchafalaya River basin north of Morgan City in coastal south-central Louisiana.
We continue to follow the progress of Invest 93L, an area of low pressure that moved from the Atlantic across the northern Florida peninsula on Tuesday and is now scraping westward through the state’s panhandle along the northern Gulf Coast.
So far in 2025, National Weather Service offices have issued more flood warnings than any other year on record dating back to 1986.
A disturbance that emerged off the coastal Carolinas on Sunday is expected to swing across Florida and into the Gulf by mid-week, where models suggest it could slowly develop as it scrapes across the northern Gulf Coast.
Big outbreaks of Saharan dust – tens of millions of tons of mineral dust hoisted from the sands of North Africa into the Atlantic each hurricane season – typically peak around this time each year.
On Wednesday, some of the nation’s top hurricane scientists joined House Democrats for a virtual press conference to sound the alarm on proposed budget cuts that would severely degrade hurricane monitoring and forecasting.
July is a transition month in the Atlantic when we begin to look a little deeper into the basin and closer to Africa for hurricane seedlings.
The catastrophic flooding that ripped through parts of the Texas Hill Country along the Guadalupe River northwest of San Antonio during the predawn hours on July 4th quickly turned into an unspeakable tragedy, killing at least 82 people, including 28 children.
We continue to monitor a weakening cold front now over the southeast U.S. that’s expected to stall over Florida by late week and could spin off a tropical depression or named storm by the weekend or early next week.
Only days after the U.S. Department of Defense abruptly announced the immediate termination of satellite data critical to hurricane forecasts – granted a moratorium early Monday through July – NOAA posted details of its 2026 budget request to Congress.
A stalled front across Florida’s peninsula later this week could spawn a tropical system over the northeastern Gulf or off the Southeast U.S. by the Fourth of July weekend.
On Monday, the U.S. Department of Defense announced it would immediately stop ingesting, processing, and transmitting data essential to most hurricane forecasts.
The low-level cloud swirl spinning harmlessly over the open waters of the high Atlantic wasn’t much to look at on Tuesday but managed to muster up enough steam for NHC to briefly classify it Tropical Storm Andrea, the first named storm of the 2025 hurricane season.
