Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W from 02N to 17N moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated showers are near the wave axis from 04N to 08N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W south of 13N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is west of the wave to 55W from 07N to 10N.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 64W south of 20N. It is moving westward near 20 kt. No deep convection is near the wave at the present time.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W, and continues southwestward to 08N21W and west-southwestward to 07N28. 5W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N35W to 07N28W and to 07. 5N45W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm north of the trough between 20W-28W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are southeast of the trough from 05N to 08N between 16W-20W.

Gulf Of America

A 1020 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf near 29N85W, with a ridge extending westward to near central Texas. The related gradient between it and relatively lower pressures in Texas and in northeast Mexico is generally providing for moderate to fresh southeast to south over the western Gulf. Seas are 3 to 5 ft with these winds. Gentle or weaker winds along with seas of 1 to 3 ft are elsewhere across the basin. A mid to upper-level low moving westward across central Cuba has a trough that extends northwestward into the eastern Gulf, where there is ample moisture in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from just west of the Florida Keys to near 84W from 24N to 26N while isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 28N east of 88W. Isolated showers are south of 23N west of 94W while scattered showers are over the central and southeastern portions of Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will pulse off the northwest portion of the Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu night. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the western half of the Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue morning, and prevail the remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere east of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

A tight pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in Colombia and nearby areas is sustaining strong to near-gale force trades along with seas in the range of 8 to 11 ft across the south-cental Caribbean. Buoy 42058 at 15N75W reported a wave height maximum of 11 ft earlier today. Mostly fresh trades along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the rest of the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are over the remainder of the basin, with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except a little lower of 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and north of 18N west of 85W.

Scattered moderate convection is along and just offshore the northern and western coasts of Jamaica. Similar activity is over some sections of western and eastern Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in Colombia and nearby areas will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean into midweek, except reaching near gale-force speeds offshore of Colombia at night. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin during the next several days.

Atlantic Ocean

A high pressure ridge axis stretches southwestward from well northeast of the area through a 1026 mb high center at 33N46W, and continues southwestward to 30N67W and west-southwest to across central Florida and over the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between the high pressure ridge and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is favoring trades of moderate to fresh speeds south of about 23N east of the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these waters, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in east swell from 11N to 15N between 55W and Lesser Antilles.

In the far eastern part of the basin, fresh to strong northeast winds are present north of 17N east of 22W to along the coast of Africa due to a tight pressure gradient between the north Atlantic high pressure and broad low pressure in western Africa, where a segment of the monsoon trough is located. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere moderate or weaker winds along with seas 3 to 5 ft remain.

For the forecast west of 55W, an expansive Bermuda-Azores High will dominate the forecast area through Mon. While most of the basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of Hispaniola will freshen in the afternoons and early evenings for the next several days. On Mon, a weak frontal boundary should emerge off the southeastern United States coast, and reach from approximately 31N73W to the central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the frontal boundary is forecast to dissipate on Wed, a broad low pressure area is forecast to along the frontal boundary offshore of the southeastern United States coast on Mon or Tue. Gradual development is possible while the system drifts southward and then westward before environmental conditions become less conducive later this week.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre