Tracking the Tropics

Developing late season storm to deliver nasty week of weather

Developing late season storm to deliver nasty week of weather

An unusual and impactful late season storm developing north of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico – designated Invest 98L – will gradually organize over the next several days and slide westward toward Florida, bringing dangerous seas, widespread coastal flooding and beach erosion, gusty squalls, and the potential for heavy rain to a wide stretch of Florida’s Atlantic coast starting Tuesday into Wednesday.

Hurricane hunters investigating Caribbean disturbance

Hurricane hunters investigating Caribbean disturbance

The disturbance moving through the central Caribbean this morning – dubbed Invest 95L – is slowly organizing and will likely become a tropical depression in the next day or two as it heads toward Jamaica, Central America, and the Yucatán Peninsula this week.

Tropics switching into fall

Tropics switching into fall

Fall is not only enjoyable in South Florida as it sees the humidity begin to break, but it is also when the tropics begin shutting down and the threat from hurricanes gets lower and lower.

Ian’s threat zone shifts north, putting eastern Gulf coast on high alert

Ian’s threat zone shifts north, putting eastern Gulf coast on high alert

Saturday’s forecasts signaled a trend northward in Ian’s potential U.S. strike area, decreasing the odds of a direct run-in with southeast Florida, but placing areas from southwest Florida to the Florida panhandle on high alert for what’s forecast to be a very powerful and impactful hurricane this week.

Down to one in the Atlantic

Down to one in the Atlantic

After a busy start to September – especially after two months without any storm activity – the Atlantic is once again cooling off, with only one disturbance we’ll be following this week in the far eastern Atlantic.

Atlantic heating up, but eyes on the central Atlantic this week

Atlantic heating up, but eyes on the central Atlantic this week

It’s looking a lot like late August out across the Atlantic today – with four areas being highlighted for potential development by the National Hurricane Center – but the broad low pressure area moving into the central Atlantic will be the main story this week.

Gulf disturbance moving inland over south Texas

Gulf disturbance moving inland over south Texas

The disturbance over the northern Gulf spawned late last week by the leftovers of an old frontal boundary is moving inland over south Texas this morning between Brownsville along the U.S./Mexico border and Corpus Christi.

Tropical depression may form this week in the Atlantic

Tropical depression may form this week in the Atlantic

A disturbance off the coast of Africa may organize into a tropical depression by middle week, becoming the first tropical system in the Atlantic since July 3 and kicking off what is traditionally the busiest stretch of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Tracking a tropical disturbance near Africa

Tracking a tropical disturbance near Africa

A robust tropical wave – a ripple in atmospheric winds 5,000 to 10,000 feet up triggering a large area of showers and thunderstorms – is emerging today off the coast of Africa.

Changes in store for the tropical Atlantic

Changes in store for the tropical Atlantic

The summer vacation the Atlantic’s taken for much of July has been a welcome sight, but there are signs the vacation may be coming to an end as we close out the month.

Bryan Norcross: Confusing Elsa impacts Jamaica and Cuba before approaching Florida tomorrow

Bryan Norcross: Confusing Elsa impacts Jamaica and Cuba before approaching Florida tomorrow

The track of the storm has made a jog because the center reformed behind where it was. Sometimes that’s bad news because it’s a way the system can get better organized and intensify. But in this case, the slightly revised track has taken it closer to Jamaica, which means the circulation is being disrupted by the mountains on that island. The medium-high terrain of eastern Cuba also appears to be ahead of it.