Special Features

Atlantic Large Swell Event: Northerly swell generated from a strong low pressure system over the Atlantic waters has generated large northerly swell. Very rough seas from this swell, with seas in excess of 12 ft, cover the waters N of 26N between 48W and 64W. Seas are currently peaking near 17 ft near 31N52W. Seas will gradually subside from SW to NE today, with seas falling below 12 ft over the discussion waters tonight.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 26W from from 02N to 14N moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 38W/39W from 02N to 11N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

An Atlantic tropical wave, Invest AL98, has its axis near 57W from 04N to 18N, moving westward at about 20 kt. The wave is producing a large and persistent area of showers and thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system still lacks a closed circulation, but is producing winds of 30 kt north and east of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are expected to limit development during the next couple of days as the system moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph, bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands beginning later today and continuing through Monday morning. By the middle to latter part of the week, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while the system slows down over the central Caribbean Sea.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 64W south of 17N. It is moving westward near 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 14N between 62W and 65W.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues southwestward to near 06N26W. The ITCZ extends from 06N27W to 05N37W, and continues from 05N40W and to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 13W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds are over the waters E of 90W, with gentle to moderate winds west of 90W. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range E of 90W, and 1-3 ft W of 90W.

For the forecast, a cold front will move into the northern Gulf today and move southward over the basin through Mon. Moderate N to NE winds are expected north of the cold front, with locally fresh winds possible north of 26N into Mon morning. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, leading to gentle to moderate winds and slight seas over the Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

High pressure is building over the Atlantic waters N of the area. This has tightened the pressure gradient supporting moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to locally moderate winds are over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the central and eastern Caribbean and 2-3 ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are expected over the south-central and eastern basin today as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Long period N swell will lead to rough seas through the Atlantic passages and over the waters east of the Lesser Antilles into early next week. A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a large and persistent area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to limit development during the next couple of days as the system moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph. By the middle to latter part of the week, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while the system slows down over the central Caribbean Sea. This system has a low chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance of tropical development within the next 7 days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with locally gusty winds along with fresh to strong winds and rough seas will accompany this wave as it moves over the tropical Atlantic waters today and the eastern and central Caribbean next week.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the Special Features section for further details on a large swell event that will impact some sections of the north-central waters through the weekend.

A cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N45W and extends to 23N55W where it becomes stationary to the southern Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are N of 28N and E of the front to 42W and N of 28N W of the front to 55W. Outside of the 12 ft seas, seas in the 8-12 ft range cover the open waters W of 70W and N of a line from 21N70W to 30N40W. High pressure prevails over the remainder of the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure center near 27N37W. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are elsewhere N of 20N. S of 20N, fresh to near gale winds and seas of 8-10 ft are in the vicinity of the tropical wave near 57W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere S of 20N and W of 40W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere S of 20N. Seas over these waters are in the 5-8 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will gradually dissipate through Mon. Widespread rough seas north of 20N and east of 77W will expand southeastward through the Greater Antilles Atlantic Passages today. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft north of 25N and east of 65W will move NE of the area today. Rough seas will slowly subside from west to east later today into early this week. A series of cold fronts are forecast to move off the coast of the southeastern United States this week, leading to increasing N winds offshore of Florida.

Posted about 7 hours ago by NHC Forecaster AL