Tropical Waves

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 36W from 05N to 17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 07N to 11N between 29W and 37W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 88W from the Gulf of Honduras through Honduras and into the eastern Pacific. It is moving west at around 10 kt. Convection associated with this wave is confined to the eastern Pacific basin.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, then curves southwestward passing near the Cabo Verde Islands to 10N24W and continuing to 06N44W. The ITCZ extends from 06N44W to 06N53W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical wave along 36W, scattered moderate convection is depicted from 08N to 12N between 19W and 26W and from 05N to 11N between 37W and 49W.

Gulf Of America

A westward-moving surface trough over the western Bay of Campeche is supporting scattered moderate convection S of 21N and W of 96W. Convection in the northern basin has generally diminished, as high pressure centered over Louisiana gradually builds S into the region. Winds E of the trough in the Bay of Campeche are fresh, with moderate winds in the Florida Straits and offshore NW Cuba. Otherwise, mainly light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are less than 3 ft, except localized 4 ft seas where the moderate or higher winds are ongoing.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will prevail across the basin through the middle of the next week producing gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through early next week as a trough develops inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. Looking ahead, winds may increase to fresh speeds across the NE Gulf by Thu.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted south of 12N and west of 80W in association to the eastern end of the Pacific Monsoon Trough. The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in Colombia low is currently sustaining strong to near gale northeast to east trades and seas of 9 to 13 ft over the south- central section of the Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds with seas at 7 to 10 ft are over the southwestern part of the basin. Mainly fresh NE to E winds are over the north- central and eastern sections of the basin, south of Cuba, and over the Windward Passage. Seas in these water are 4 to 7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds prevail in the NW basin with seas 3 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure locate N of area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through early next week. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas will prevail in the Windward Passage through tonight. At the same time, expect fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into next week as western Atlantic high pressure weakens.

Atlantic Ocean

The ridging from a 1028 mb high pressure near 35N42W is supporting light to gentle winds with 2 to 3 ft seas north of 26N between 60W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Moderate to fresh east winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the waters of the southeastern Bahamas. Otherwise, mostly moderate northeast to east winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are over the waters from 09N to 31N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northeast winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will dominate the weather pattern across the forecast region through early next week. A gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow will prevail along with moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and moderate seas north of Hispaniola to about 22N, including approaches to the Windward Passage, will diminish late tonight. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into next week as high pressure weakens over the western Atlantic, and a frontal boundary clips the offshore waters of NE Florida.

Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik